esc

News & research for the 200-week investor

The Letters.

Industry news, market commentary, and field research on value investing, set-and-forget discipline, and the 200-week moving average.

Letters published 55 · Most recent Sep 9, 2026 · Reading order Newest first

All letters

Almanac · · 1 min

What we learned the week ENPH hit its 200-week SMA in 2018.

Almanac · · 1 min

CMG touched its line in August 2018. Here’s what happened next.

Almanac · · 1 min

What we learned the week DELL hit its 200-week SMA in 2022.

Momentum and Mean Reversion Both Work. They Just Work on Different Time Horizons.

Education · · 13 min

Momentum and Mean Reversion Both Work. They Just Work on Different Time Horizons.

Almanac · · 1 min

PANW touched its line in August 2017. Here’s what happened next.

Deep Dive · · 13 min

Private Equity for Retail Investors: Mostly a Repackaging of Things You Already Own

Almanac · · 1 min

What we learned the week ALGN hit its 200-week SMA in 2019.

Almanac · · 1 min

The week AXON reached its 200-week mean — August 2017.

Almanac · · 1 min

July 2023: NRG kissed the line.

Almanac · · 1 min

The week FCX reached its 200-week mean — July 2020.

Almanac · · 1 min

What we learned the week SLB hit its 200-week SMA in 2022.

Almanac · · 1 min

July 2020: TPL kissed the line.

Almanac · · 1 min

LULU touched its line in July 2017. Here’s what happened next.

Almanac · · 1 min

DVN touched its line in June 2021. Here’s what happened next.

The Case for Emerging Markets When Almost No One Wants Them

Strategy · · 14 min

The Case for Emerging Markets When Almost No One Wants Them

Almanac · · 1 min

WSM touched its line in June 2023. Here’s what happened next.

Monte Carlo Retirement Calculators Are Lying About Your Probability of Success

Education · · 13 min

Monte Carlo Retirement Calculators Are Lying About Your Probability of Success

The Long-Term Investor Really Only Makes Three Decisions

Strategy · · 13 min

The Long-Term Investor Really Only Makes Three Decisions

Cap-Weighted Indices Have a Hidden Bias. You Should Choose Your Stance on It Deliberately.

Education · · 12 min

Cap-Weighted Indices Have a Hidden Bias. You Should Choose Your Stance on It Deliberately.

Should You Hedge Currency on International Equity? The Answer Depends on Two Things

Strategy · · 13 min

Should You Hedge Currency on International Equity? The Answer Depends on Two Things

Almanac · · 1 min

What we learned the week MTCH hit its 200-week SMA in 2017.

Dividend Investing Is More Misunderstood Than Either Side Will Admit

Education · · 13 min

Dividend Investing Is More Misunderstood Than Either Side Will Admit

What we learned the week BBY hit its 200-week SMA in 2016.

Almanac · · 1 min

What we learned the week BBY hit its 200-week SMA in 2016.

Ergodicity: The Math Concept That Explains Why You Can’t Average Bad Outcomes

Education · · 13 min

Ergodicity: The Math Concept That Explains Why You Can’t Average Bad Outcomes