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News & research for the 200-week investor
The Letters.
Industry news, market commentary, and field research on value investing, set-and-forget discipline, and the 200-week moving average.
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What we learned the week BBY hit its 200-week SMA in 2016.
Ergodicity: The Math Concept That Explains Why You Can’t Average Bad Outcomes
High Multiples Don’t Equal a Bubble (And What Actually Does)
Rate Cuts and Equity Returns: The Relationship Is Messier Than CNBC Suggests
What we learned the week NVDA hit its 200-week SMA in 2019.
Which Equity Sectors Actually Pass Inflation Through to Earnings
Berkshire Without Buffett: What the Operating Engine Actually Looks Like
Factor Investing: Where the Premia Are Real and Where They’re Overfit
UAL touched its line in May 2016. Here’s what happened next.
What 20 Years of SPIVA Data Tells Us About Active Management
The Real Cost of a 1% Fee Over 30 Years (It’s Worse Than You Think)
Quantifying Economic Moats: ROIC, Reinvestment, and Why Margins Lie
Free Cash Flow Tells the Truth Earnings Per Share Tries to Hide
Buybacks vs. Dividends: The Argument Both Sides Get Wrong
Risk Tolerance Questionnaires Lie About Who You’ll Be in a Bear Market
Bonds Still Belong in Your Portfolio (Just Not for the Reasons You Were Told)
Why Most US Investors Are Wildly Overexposed to Their Own Country
Sequence-of-Returns Risk: The Retiree Killer No One Talks About in Accumulation
The Small-Cap Premium: Does It Still Exist, and Where?
Compounders vs. Cyclicals: Building a Portfolio That Lets You Sleep
Value Investing After a Decade of Growth Dominance: Is the Setup Different Now?
Concentration vs. Diversification: Why Buffett’s Advice Differs From What You Should Do
Using the 200-Week SMA as a Trend Filter, Not a Signal
Dollar Cost Averaging vs. Lump Sum: What 96 Years of Data Actually Show
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